Okay. They lost one. So what.

The best teams in baseball win games, the worst teams do too.

When you think about the best teams in baseball, you find that a 1st place team is only going win about 100 games in a season at best -- 108 is really really good. Conversely, the worst teams in baseball might get away with 60 wins -- 54 is really really bad.

So, how do bad teams win and great teams lose games?

Dumb luck

Sometimes, teams win games due to dumb luck: a caught line drive by a fielder in a exactly the right place can save two runs while a blooper to left field can score two runs, which is precisely what happened to the Jays against Colorado on June 17th. In the top of the 8th inning, Colorado had runners at 2nd and 3rd with one out and Lind made a wonderful play to catch a smoked line drive. In the bottom half of that inning, Maicer hit a bloop single to short left which plated Davis and Colby. And that's the difference between a W and a L.

Pitching miscues

You can't expect every Jays starter to go out there and have a quality start every time out. They are going to make mistakes because it is EXTREMELY difficult to pitch well every time you are on the mound. Pitching is extremely mental, but it is physical too. Sometimes your fastball cannot work because you can't connect the mind to the body. That's what happened to Esmil last night, leaving him only with a working breaking ball. It happens.

Hitting outages

What is supposed to happen when your pitching doesn't work is your batting is supposed to pick it up for you. But the bats will run into a pitcher sometimes who stymie you, or you run into a part of the lineup who is just not hitting well (Cabrera and Bautista). If Edwin and Lind have an off night as well then it becomes extremely difficult to manufacture and score runs.

Putting it all together

The fact is that the combination of the three leads to a perfectly playing team to lose 1 game of 3. What happens between winning between 1 and 2 games of 3 is a function of the team's true skill. In the case of the Blue Jays, you are looking at a team with below average infield and LF defense, an unexpectedly overperforming bullpen, an unexpectently underperforming starting rotation, and inconsistency (save Lind and Edwin) in the starting lineup. This leads to a .500 team that is susceptible to streaks.

Bringing back Lawrie and Reyes (and yes, sending down Kawasaki) will improve the IF defence dramatically and should improve the offense too. Putting Edwin at 3rd and letting Cabrera DH for a few days in a row will improve his legs so that he can play better defensively in LF and let Rajai get some playing time. The time to do this (give Cabrera's legs some rest) is now before Lawrie gets back.

The starting rotation is what it is. Lately they've been very good. RA Dickey is not going to have a good season and there's no improvement. Josh Johnson I predict will be on fire as he tries to get a monster contract. Mark Buehrle is fine. Esmil Rogers pitched only  75 innings last year and he's only good for about 8 more starts berore he will be pulled. Chien-Ming Wang has been great so far, but we'll see how he does in Boston against his AL East rivals who know him well. By that time (after the All-Star break), reinforcements in Brandon Morrow and JA Happ should be ready.

And offensively, the players need to get on a roll collectively. Bautista has been very streaky, as has Cabrera, Arencibia and Rasmus. Adding Reyes back to the front of the lineup will increase scoring opportunities and speed at the start of the lineup.

Predictions

The Jays have now shown that they are a good team. Defense has improved as Bonfacio, Reyes, and Izturis get used to the turf. Offense is very very good on most nights and will improve with the return of Reyes and then Lawrie. Starting pitching will be an issue for RA Dickey only. The bullpen I think will continue to shine. In short, if the team can score 5 runs a game and the starting pitching can leave the team with a lead after 6 innings this team will win alot of games, many more than they will lose.

My prediction now is that the playoff race for 2nd place in the AL East goes down to the wire, with the Jays fighting it out for the 2nd wild card spot between any one of the four AL east teams, with about 92 wins. The last 15 games that the Jays play are against AL East contenders and I think it's these games that will determine the playoff picture in the AL East. Look for Texas or Oakland to take a wild card spot with whoever finishes in 2nd in the AL East to take the 2nd wild card.

Munenori, we hardly knew ya!

Tomorrow will be likely be Munenori's last game at the MLB level for a while, as Jose Reyes returns to the lineup 

How did the .229 / .341 / .333 hitter win the hearts of Blue Jays fans?

Munenori Kawasaki, probably about to take a bow
(Tim Sharp/Reuters)

.

His ethic and love for the game

First, it was his ethic towards the game. Flaunted by Sportsnet and its own ownership, Rogers made this guy special. His crazy handstands before the game, the talk about his work ethic, his bows to the other players and to fans, playing catch with fans. his stutter-steal. His spirit is just infectuous. His crazy "I am Japanese" yell in the post game interview after his walk-off, and his curtain call to the crowd after his only home run. Players and fans love him.

He made the fact that the Jays were sucking for a while tolerable.

His approach and success as a hitter

Second, it was that .341 OBP and the fact that he would be 10th in the AL in pitches per plate appearance (had he qualified). He tries really hard, runs out every ground ball, and walks more than he strikes out, the ONLY player on the team to do so.

He walks 13.2% of the time which is in the top 5% in the AL (the average rate is 8%).

His .674 OPS is much better than the .459 he posted with Seattle last year.  He has a WAR of 1.3. He has 4 triples because when he hits a ball in the gap (which is extremely rare), the ball goes to the wall and the opposing team has that much further to run. So, he was absolutely more than what any one could possibly hope for.

He is a decent defender

Finally, he did a decent job as shortshop while Jose has been gone. His fielding was average, as good as Izturis and Derosa at the same position.

 

But what choice does management have?

But, fans, when Jose Reyes comes back, there is no other logical choice but for Kawasaki to go down. Kawasaki cannot play any other position well - he played 10 games at 2B last year (4 started) and that represents ALL of his experience at that position. It wouldn't be fair to take that position away from Derosa, Bonifacio, or Izturis. And none of those three players have options.

There is absolutely no situation where you would pinch hit Kawasaki for anyone on the team. There is no situation where you would put in Kawasaki as a defensive replacement for Jose Reyes or a second basement.

Bonifacio is in a hell of a slump right now, but he will get better. Defensively he already has. Izturis is out of his funk hitting .325 over his past 10 games. And Derosa isn't going anywhere.

My advice to you if you love Kawasaki: take the trip to Buffalo and go see him at a Bisons game. For the Jays management, the choice is clear. Maybe you postpone Reyes return until he is absolutely ready, but the plan is to have Reyes return after today's game, as he is ready, and the team needs him to continue their run.

State of the BooJays: The Jays in May

The Jays had a much better month in May then they did in April, but severe problems still exist.

The Jays started May at 10-17 (seven games under .500) and finished the month of May losing a grueling 17 inning game to finish May at 13-15, two more games under .500. Overall, that leaves the Jays at 23-32.

The Good

There were many bright spots on the team for May:

Hitting (from best to worst):

Adam Lind's May was .346 / .409 / .590 with 4 home runs over 88 plate appearances. He needs to be kept in the lineup against right handed pitchers. This is fantastic for Lind.

Jose Bautista's May was .337 / .446 / .548 with only 5 home runs. He is spraying hits, especially with two strikes and has a different approach to the game which is giving him success.

Edwin Encarnacion had a good month, batting .292 / .364 / .504 with 6 home runs.

Melky Cabrera had a good month, batting .319 / .361 / .460 with 10 doubles. His power is slowly returning but with his bum hamstrings, will the trend continue?

Colby Rasmus is hitting better than expected, batting .263 / .330 / .463 with 5 home runs, but with 28Ks in 95AB, he still has work to do.

Honorable mention to Munenori Kawasaki (for his walk-off win) and his 4.34 pitches / plate appearance, 4th in the AL among players with more than 100 PA.

Relief Pitching

The Blue Jays' overworked bullpen continues to shine with its 3.71 ERA and 1.280 WHIP, solidly in the middle of the pack. But they worked 208 innings in May, the most in the AL.

Brett Cecil is the best surprise with his 1.91 ERA and WHIP of 0.918 and a K rate of 10.5/9. Completely unexpected. His May was very good with a K/BB rate of 5.83, a WHIP of .878 and an opposing OPS of just .476

Steve Delabar with a 2.17 ERA is very very good. His May was better than his April, with a .878 WHIP and 1.98 ERA

Aaron Loup with a 2.40 ERA and 1.10 WHIP is also quite good. His May was also better than April with a .875 WHIP and 1.69 ERA.

Casey Janssen with 11 saves (none blown), a 2.12 ERA and WHIP of .588 is phenomenal despite his sore shoulder.

The Ugly

Starting Pitching

Starting pitching has been truly ugly.

Brandon Morrow with his 6.14 ERA over 4 starts. His last three starts have been particularly bad and likely he will miss a start and may even end up on the disabled list.

A healthy RA Dickey with his 5.82 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. By far, the team's worst disappointment, half of his outings in May have been bad, with 6 or more earned runs. He needs to be better if this team wants to win games. On top of that, to keep pressure off the bullpen, he will always pitch 6 or more innings even if he is getting whomped. His knuckleball is slower. His control is worse.

A not so healthy Mark Buehrle with his 4.89 ERA and 1.293 WHIP. His last two starts have been very good, but he had 3 starts in May with 5 or more earned runs allowed -- not good.

Then, there's Ricky Romero's awful starts and the awful smack to the head of JA Happ.

Hitting

There are two disappointments with hitting in May.

Brett Lawrie. He hit a disappointing .207 / .271 / .391 in May. Though he hit 3 HR, he needs to be better to justify hitting 5th in the lineup. On top of that, he got thrown out of a game (not justifiably so), then got mad at the 3rd base coach and Adam Lind for not running on a potential sacrifice fly. Then, in the next game, he sprained his ankle and put himself on the 15 day DL, after apologizing to his fans.

JP Arencibia hit .208 / .232 / .375 in May. His strikeout rate is down to about 26% in May, which is okay. But with him hitting in the centre of the lineup, he needs to be better. He hit 4 HR in May and 4 doubles, which is half of his extra base production in May.

Honorable mentions go to Macier and Bonifacio have hit better in May, but still they are under the standards that they were known for last year. Hopefully the bounceback continues for both of them. 

Are things looking up?

On the pitching side, Josh Johnson returns this week to pitch in San Francisco. JA Happ will continue his steps towards rehab and might be back before the all star break. Brandon Morrow may need to go on the DL and will likely miss a couple of starts (June 2 and 9) but with two off days, the rotation can be moved to accomodate. Perhaps Ricky Romero will find his stride.

But none of these are necessarily good things. Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, and RA Dickey need to improve for the team overall to do better to and to take pressure off the bullpen. Only their personal improvement will do well for the team.

Chad Jenkins looks to be capable as a starter, and Esmil Rogers also did fine. The addition of Wagner and Perez to the bullpen appear to be good ones, and Loup, Cecil, Janssen and Delabar is great. Look for Dustin McGowan's return to MLB as well. The bullpen looks strong, and with Santos on the sidelines until at least after the all star break and Darren Oliver making a mid-June return, it looks like the bullpen will continue to improve.

On the batting side, things have improved in May massively. Jose Reyes will start his rehab stint shortly and will likely be back before the end of June. Rajai Davis has already started his comeback and will likely be back within a couple of weeks. Brett Lawrie's bat will not be missed, but his glove will be. Look for Brett Lawrie to be back by late June.

Reyes' return will spell the end of Munenori Kawasaki in Toronto. Kawasaki cannot play in another position. Rajai's return will spell the end of Gose's stay in Toronto, unless Cabrera injures his hamstring further. Reyes' return will place pressure on opposing pitchers and I expect continued improvement in hitting overall starting towards the middle of June.

The schedule in June is not looking much better. The Jays have 7 games against the high flying Texas Rangers and faces a series of games at the month towards the Orioles, Rays, and Red Sox. The series against the White Sox and Rockies and the current series are the only "easy" spots in the schedule.

I expect the Jays to go 15-12 in June.

Anthopoulos' state of the obvious

The Jays will get better?



Anthopoulos' career ending mistake? Certainly, not a brilliant move.

Expectations for the 2013 Blue Jays were hyped. With no hockey in the fall and Anthopoulos's moves with the jump in payroll, Torontonians, no Canadians, were hyped up to see Canada's baseball team go to the playoffs, and maybe the World Series.

Instead, the Maples Leafs are going to the playoffs, and the 2013 rendition of the Blue Jays have a very long road ahead of them even to reach .500.

So Anthopoulos met with the media today and made the following severely presiced comments: I'm disappointed, but it will get better. It has to.

The long form of the message is that the individual records of each of these players won't allow this team to continue along this path indefinitely. The starting pitching staff should have an ERA of below 4, and hopefully, it should be around 3.8 or 3.7. Certain offensive players should have on-base percentages much higher than they have: Bonificio, Izturis, Bautista, Melky, and even Colby. The defense should get better.

It just has to, right? Not necessarily.

One has to look at WHY the team, collectively, started off as poorly as they did.

Starting pitching

Mark Buehrle, though Mr. Reliable has had bouts of poor pitching. In five starts with the Marlins last year (July 19 - August 10), he went 0-3, pitched 26.1 innings, let in 24 earned runs, and was terrible. Over the final 8 starts, he averaged 6.9 innings per start with a 3.58 ERA. So let's not worry about Mark Buehrle.

RA Dickey's slow start (4.50 ERA) is not unique to him either. Last year, from June 24 to July 24, over 6 start (+ 1 extra inning pitched), he had a 5.36 ERA over 40 innings and a WHIP of about 1.4.

Brandon Morrow's start is not too far out of line with 2011 so far, but we're still waiting for him to have a stellar start where he goes deep into the game.

And Josh Johnson has had bad periods of time, with a 6.61 ERA over his first six starts as a Marlin last year.

But four out of five doing poorly together? What's up with that? Coincidence?

The offense

Even with Maicer's recent hitting spurt, both he and Bonifacio are both having their worst months in their MLB career, together, at the same time.

We know that Adam Lind and Colby can be inconsistent at the plate. Colby's strikeout rate, however, at 45% is very disturbing. And while there are have been short spurts in his career where his strike out rate was 40%, this is unprecented.
Jose Bautista has started off his season horribly. He has yet to have a multi-hit game. His strikeout rate is over 25% and there wasn't a stretch of games last year where he struck out as much. But he had a 25 game stretch last year where he bat .146 / .284 / .270 at the beginning of the year (except the first game). At least this year he's hitting home runs. He warmed up last year and there no reason to expect anything differently this year.

Melky has started the season hitting .250 / .303 / .300 and while he had a stretch of 18 games last year early on when he bat .231 / .301 / .308. But Melky is just lacking power, and it's troubling .You can expect that for missing 2 months of the season last year, and there seems to be no sign that he won't be doing worse.

Brett Lawrie will come around. Edwin will be fine. JP Arencibia is striking out alot too (at just below 40%), but he has done that before and been an acceptable hitter, especially for a catcher. He's hitting for power and that's all that can be asked of him.

But once against, why is all of this poorness all coming together? Is this coincidence too?

 

John Gibbons

John Gibbons was fired after the Milwaukee series in June 2008. The team went through a 4-13 run falling 7.5 games back in the standings from being 3 games to 10.5 games back. 8 of those 13 games losses were one run losses, including 3 walk-offs and 1 come from behind and 2 late loss ties. The team was 10-19 in one run games. In his last game in Milwaukee, down 8-1, the team stormed back in the top of the ninth with one on and two out to score six runs, falling short 8-7 and seal Gibbons' fate.

In 2008, despite the .279 BA, the team produced around 4 runs per game. Run production suffered dearly under Gibbons.

Sound familiar?

So I wondering what kind of job John Gibbons is doing, and whether Alex Anthopoulos will do the same thing that JP Ricciardi felt like he had to do: fire John Gibbons.

Looking back at the Miked up blog entries (Mike Wilner's daily writings on the Blue Jays) from 2008, it's pretty clear that some major similarities are happening: run production was a huge issue and the Jays are finding ways to lose, especially late in the game by one run. Why?

Is it beyond luck? Baseball at this level is simply more than about numbers. It's about momentum, spirit, and team.

And with so many players performing below average at the same time, you just feel like it has to do with the coaching staff more than coincidence. And given that this has happened before with the same manager, you have to wonder...

Lineups are changing every day. That has to be a bit disconcerting to the players. Yes, the players are to blame, too, but you can't fire the team. The bullpen is doing fine, and they're not on the bench. I really think that this team is quite down right now, and needs an inspirational leader to lead them through. When the team starts performing poorly collectively, it's up to the managerial staff to fix the problem.

Gibbons doesn't have that capability. He didn't in 2008, and nothing sugggests that he does now, unlike Joe Girardi, who can take a team with severe injuries and put together a winner. Unlike Buck Showalter who has found a way for his Orioles to win a bunch of 1 run games and make the playoffs. Unlike Joe Maddon, and now, perhaps, unlike John Farrell.

The team has got to get better. But will it?

Major Suckage Continue as Jays just not into it

Jays make blunders, hitting continues to suffer

When you look back on the scoresheet, you wonder how the Jays continue to lose close games and wonder how the continuous pressure is feeling on this organization.

As April draws to a close, the Jays stand to open the season with anywhere between 9 and 12 wins and 18 and 15 losses -- A lousy start. In my previous article, I compared the Jays with the 2001 Oakland As who started the season 8-18 to end the season at 102-60.

But when I look at this Blue Jays team, the fundamentals are just not there yet.

Here are what I think are two major problems on the team:

Something is terribly wrong with the hitting

Maicer Izturis and Bonifacio need to have their career-advertised .320+ OBP to be effective, and so far, they've fallen fall short of that. In fact BOTH players are having their career worst months in MLB.

Bonifacio has a paltry .219 OBP for April, his worst month even in the majors except for the first month that he played back in 2008. Certainly, he can do better, and yes, he should be given the opportunity to be better by putting him in the situations he should be playing in: in CF or at 2B against LHP and used later in the game for situtaional ball, as he was today.

Izturis is also having his worst month ever with a .197 OBP.

Brett Lawrie is slowly coming around, and the excuse that he didn't have any spring training holds. There is no evidence that suggests that he is not improving. His OBP is heading in the right direction and his at bats look better.

Rajai Davis is playing to expectations, but positionally, there's no room on the field for him unless you sit Colby, It makes sense to sit Colby and Adam Lind against LHP. In that case, put Rajai in centre and Bonifacio at 2B, or alternatively put Bonifacio in CF, Rajai in LF, and DH Cabrera. But with the way that Bonifacio and Izturis are hitting, you can only afford to put one of them in the lineup and hope that they come around. That forces you to keep Davis in the lineup but with the outfielders all doing very well against RHP, that's not possible to do. A conumdrum for sure, and not one of the good kind.

Melky Cabrera, I believe is also going to be okay. With an OBP of .310 (so far) and a 50+ game suspension last year and his deliberate exlusion from the playoffs, he is only slowly getting back to form. He should be fine.

Edwin is going to be fine, and his bombs in Baltimore and New York show that he's found his swing again.

JP Arencibia has switched into a home run hitter. 40% of his at bats end in strikeouts, compared to his 30% average from the last two years. Given that he's at the top of the leaderboard in home runs, this isn't a bad thing. There is nothing wrong with his .267 BA and playing in 4 of every 5 games is good for him.

Then there's Jose Bautista. Half of his 12 hits have been home runs, and he has yet to hit more than once in a game. He has got to come around and try to get hits instead of bombs especially against tough pitching. He has been unlucky too especially with his ground balls (his BABIP is sub .200). He must improve for this team to get better.

Adam Lind has seemed to develop plate discipline, and hopefully the birth of his second child doesn't destroy that high OBP (close to .400). If he can have a year anything north of his last three years, it will be good.

Kawasaki is doing way more than expected. A replacement level player at best, he's doing very well... too well. As his scouting gets better, expect him to start to do worse. 

And finally, Colby Rasmus. He too is turning into a DH with a strikeout rate at close to 50%. He needs plate discipline but I think it's actually coming along. Does Colby belong at the #2 spot?

Still, for this team, it's a matter of timely hitting. The lineup, as it stands, just isn't stringing hits together. Bautista is usually the 3rd out, leaving bases empty for Edwin. Brett Lawrie and Izturis/Bonifacio need to improve. Average pitchers are looking like aces in front of the Jays, and while there are glimmers of hope and a few comebacks, this team on any given night just looks awful at the plate with the exception of the home run.

I think Gibby is learning what is working and what is not and adjusting his lineup accordingly. He's stuck with putting Maicer or Bonifacio in every game and trotting Kawasaki out there every day to play short. But really, the lineup should be pretty much the same as advertised with a "no-panic" lineup. I don't like the fact that he is switching the lineup everyday.

Which brings me to my second point: Infield defence

The Jays middle infield, frankly, just sucks, and that was before Jose Reyes was struck with injury. Now it really sucks, and Brett Lawrie is not much better (yet), though much faster.

With messed up throws and errors from Lawrie, Bonifacio, Izturis, and Kawasaki, and missed plays because of lack of speed, the infield has cost the Jays several games, as has the poor play of Arencibia. These errors force the pitchers to throw more pressure under higher pressure and cause the team to play from behind. This in turn puts pressure on the team to bat to play catch up and results in higher strike out rates as the players get away from their own ideal fundamentals.

I do like Lawrie's glove, but his decision making to throw the ball results in costly errors. He needs to eat the ball or make better throwing decisions by planting his feet and making accurate throws to first.

And while Kawasaki started out strong, his play at shortstop has now been questionable. It seemed like since he commited his game-losing error against Baltimre, his defense has been suffering.

And both Maicer and Bonifacio's 2B play have been poor. Tonight loss was caused by many, many blunders: 5 walks given up by Laffey, Rajai getting caught stealing 3rd for the third out, the passed ball by Arencibia, the non-play by Kawasaki, the missed play by Lawrie, and the blundered double play by Izturis. The Jays need to play clean defense so that their pitcher can get out of innings more quickly.

I pointed out when Escobar and Johnston were traded that the defense would suffer, and it has greatly. 

What to do

There is really no valid explanation as to why both Izturis and Bonifacio are doing so poorly at the same time, and there is really no valid explanation as to why Lind, Bautista, Rasmus, and Encarnacion had very slow starts to the year.

So you look at the sum of the whole. Each of the players, true, are to blame for their own individual performances, but you have to wonder what effect does the coaching staff have on their players. How is the player's individual relationship with the management affecting their own performance, and collectively, can the relationships between the managers and players affect performance? I think so.

John Gibbons appears to be in panic mode. With the daily switchup of the lineups and his expermentation with the player of the moment being allowed to bat second, I wonder if he's in over his head.

But both the fans and the team need to calm down. Expectations are high, but it's okay if the Jays don't make the playoffs this year. With the Maple Leafs about to start a playoff run, the media and fans will be looking to the ice instead of the field for a while. The pitching staff will be around for another year. Jose Reyes will come back healthy.

But there are a few things they can do:

(1) Goodbye Blanco, hello Thole. Thole is a major league catcher and is outperforming in AAA. It's time to bring him to the show.

(2) Time to trade Colby Rasmus and Bonifacio for a reliable 2B and bring up Gose or Sierra, or to DFA Izturis or Bonifacio and give Jim Negrych a chance. Something defensively has to change.

(3) Take a deep look at the management staff and their style. Don't panic. Keep the lineup the same against RHP and LHP.

(4) Help the players execute the game. Focus. Concentrate. Practice.

The 2001 Oakland Athletics

Are the 2013 Jays the 2001 Oakland Athletics? Who knows?

Jason Giambi.
Oakland started the season at 8-18 before going on
to get 102 wins for the season.

Jays start off 8-13. Are they done?

Rogers apologists like to look at the 2013 rendition of the Jays and say that's it's early. The fandom have all but concluded that this team is done and that drastic measures must be taken.

I took a look at the records of all playoff and likely playoff teams (those teams who would have made an enhanced wild card playoff) and looked for teams who were 5 OR more game under .500 after 20 - 22 games played and looked at the last 17 years of data (1996-2012) when a full season was played with the current division format seen.

Of 170 teams that would have made the playoffs in both leagues, there are 5 instances of playoff teams with 90 or more wins in a season who had a record of 8-13 or worse. That gives the Jays, if they were an average team a 3% probability of making the playoffs assuming 90 wins or more are needed.

These teams include the 2010 Atlanta Braves who started the season 8-13 before going on to win 91 games and a wildcard berth, the 2009 Colorado Rockies with the identical 8-13 record to win 92 and a wildcard, the 2005 Cleveland Indians (91 wins, 5th) and San Francisco Giants (91 wins, 5th). But the most notable comeback in modern memory is the 2001 Oakland Athletics.

The 2001 Oakland Athletics

On April 25, 2001, the Oakland Athletics dropped a 2-1 extra inning game to the White Sox to go to 7-14 on the season. The next game, they whalloped the White Sox 16-6 before losing 3-2, 7-6, and 3-1 to the Yankees over a three game sweep. Then they went home to host Buck Martinez's Jays on May 1 where they dropped a 5-4 affair and their record dropped to a dismal 8-18.

This was a team whose lineup at that point featured Johnny Damon (OPS .549), Frank Menechino (1.040), Jason Giambi (1.135), Terrence Long (.926), Eric Chavez (.742), Miquel Tejada (.748), Olmedo Saenz (.699), Jeremy Giambi (.556), and Ramon Hernanzez (.616).

In April, the A's starters had an (.288/.359/.460) line and a 5.83 ERA which improved massively to 3.10 after the All Star Break. This was a rotation of Mark Mulder (4.40 ERA), Barry Zito (4.58 ERA), Cory Lidle (4.96), Tim Hudson (6.35) and Gil Heredia (9.24). Gil was eventually replaced by Eric Hiljus.

The team then went on a 15-5 tear, sweeping the Jays in Toronto, the Yankees and the White Sox. But even then, the team hovered around the .500 mark until the All-Star break - the team was 44-43 and 19 games back of the high-flying Mariners.

The team went 58-17 to wrap the season with 102 wins. Jeremy Giambi ended up batting with an OPS of .841. They still managed to lose the division to the Seattle Mariners but made the playoffs before losing to the Yankees in the ALDS.

The Jays are actually a good team

On paper, this team certainly has the capability to turn it around. The Jays' offense is sputtering but the starting rotation has shown their talent now to keep the Jays in the game and the bullpen has been surprisingly good as well. Now it is up to Gibbons and the offense to start moving and start scoring more than 4 runs a game on a consistent basis and to start winning close games.

Someone has to step up to the plate to become the leadoff hitter and Gibby has to leave them there. I don't like the momentary lineups based on a streak of 3-4 games. That just shakes up the hitters and shows that Gibby is panicking. Gibby needs to decide on a leadoff tandem to start the game leading off and just leave it as it is. Those person is the duo of Bonifacio and Davis (Davis faces LHP, Bonifacio RHP).

Bonfacio is a lead off hitter and has played the majority of his career leading off. With Jose gone, put Bonifacio in the #1 spot and let his true talent show. Emilio is NOT A BUM, but he is certainly lacking plate discipline right now. His career walk / strike out ratio is close to 1:2 (not the 1:6 it is currently). Let him play against RHP, and let Rajai play against LHP. The speed will and the stolen base will be factors, which will only help Cabrera, who should be left in the #2 hole.

These are really your best options, and putting Kawasaki in the leadoff spot is insanity. His numbers are rapidly coming down to earth.

Let the long term numbers play themselves out and give your players a chance to gel. Don't hit the panic button *yet*. Wait a week.

Don't blame the bullpen!

Jays bullpen has lost six games so far, most in the AL

The bullpen has lost 6 of the 12 games this season, more than any other team in the AL. However, its bullpen is 7th in the AL in ERA at a very respectable 3.24.

The pen is also very hard worked with 72.1 innings pitched over 20 games. Let's look at each bullpen loss and see who is to blame.

April 3: Sergio Santos loses 3-2 in 11 innings.

A disappointing loss as Jose Bautista hits the game tying home run in the bottom of the 9th, in a game where the Jays manage only 5 hits. Sergio then gives up a home run in the top of the 11th to Mark Reynolds. When you score only two runs in a game, it's difficult to win.

Fault: lack of offence.

April 5: Esmil Rogers loses the game in the 8th. Boston wins 6-4.

This is the bullpen and Izturis' fault. Esmil game on with one out in the 8th, walked, gave up a double, and Napoli got the RBI for Boston to get the 5-4 lead on a play where Izturis couldn't field the ball and throw home. Gibbons then put on Jeffries in the 9th who gave up the insurance run via the home run. This was also the famous game where Bonifacio commits three errors.

Fault: the infielders and Esmil.

April 14: Darren Oliver loses the game in the 9th as KC beats Toronto 3-2.

This was Oliver's fault, but the Jays were unable to score more than 1 earned run against Santana. Bonifacio's throw to the plate could have been in time, but you can't fault Bonifacio early in the season for making an off-line throw when he never plays RF.

Fault: the lack of offense.

April 16: Steve Delabar loses the game in the top of the 9th. Chicago beats the Jays 4-2.

This may have been poor defense on Bonifacio's part as he couldn't catch up to a double that perhaps Colby or Rajai does. He took a terrible line to the ball. However, Delabar gave up two walks to open the frame, and you've get to expect at least one of those runs to score. Blame Delabar on this one, but once again, blame the Jays offense for failing to score more than 2 runs.

Fault: Delabar and lack of offense

April 20: Aaron Loup loses the game on his throwing error in the 11th as the Yankees win 5-3.

Aaron Loup makes a bad throw to third on an Ichiro bunt which costs him the game. And he gave up two lead off singles. Bad things happen. Blame Aaron on this one.

Fault: Aaron. But he took a shot at third to keep a double play in order.

April 22: Aaron Loup loses the game 2-1 to the Orioles in the bottom of the 9th due to Kawasaki error.

With runners on 1st and 2nd with two out, a standard double play ball eats up Kawasaki and he inexplicitly throws it to first but too late. Markasis then walks off via a nicely hit bloop single to left field. But once again, this is due to a lack of offense.

Fault: Kawasaki, lack of offense.

So whose fault is it?

When the bullpen is on average playing 3.6 innings per game and giving up an average of about 1.3 runs per game, that's pretty fantastic, really. When your defense is not making great plays (Bonifacio, Kawasaki, Izturis) behind you, you stand to lose. When the offense is not scoring any runs against pitchers that other teams manage to score on, you have to look at the anemic offense.

In all of these cases, the Jays are tied which puts the bullpen under pressure. The Jays have yet to blow a save, and this is incredible.

So spread the blame folks. This isn't the bullpen's fault at all. It's the lack of offense and poor defense behind them that puts pressure on them.

And the bullpen was not supposed to be the stars of this team. It was supposed to be the offense and the starting pitching.

What to do about them Boo Jays?

It's been quite disappointing to watch the 7-11 Blue Jays muddle through the very young season, and the Rogers apologists think that there's no reason to worry, but there is.

For the Jays to make the playoffs they will need to go at least 86-58 to reach 93 wins, and even that might not be enough. That's a .600 record. Are the Jays  on the field today capable of playing .600 ball. Absolutely. But will they? Absolutely not.

The good

There are bright spots on this team, to be sure. We know that the starting rotation are CAPABLE of great starts, and we've seen the bright spots from Dickey, Johnson, and Morrow. We know that Mark Buehrle is a 4 ERA pitcher in the AL, and that means we should expect at least 1/2 of his starts to be quality ones. And JA Happ is the #5 starter and anything under a 5 ERA is good for him.

We know that JP Arencibia and Jose Bautista are performing to expectations, each putting bombs out of the park. We also see patches of sunshine from Adam Lind and Edwin and hopefully that will become consistent as the season wears on. We know that Adam is streaky and we'll need to see how that plays out over the season.

A welcome suprpise is the bullpen. Janssen, Delebar, Loup, Rogers, Cecil, and Santos are performing better than expected. Darren Oliver has been shaky, but the bullpen as a whole has been very good, especially given the early season pressure.

The ugly

But we've seen blowouts from each of the pitchers too. It's easy to point at the defense tell them to do their job, and indeed, defence is lacking when Jose is not playing right field and with a hole at 2B. But it's the pitcher's job to make sure they don't get on base. I attribute 4 of 11 losses to awful starts. Dickey's initial outing was bad because Arencibia clearly couldn't catch the knuckleball in front of 50,000 people.

The other losses were due to lack of hitting. This team should be hitting much better than they are. You can excuse the team for giving up in the blowouts, absolutely. But when you're consistently not outputting runs, you are not going to win games, and you can't always stick it into your bullpen's or defense's hands to be perfect in order to hold a tie game or a slim lead all of the time because you can't score. The bullpen and defence are the weaker parts of this team, especially at 2B (all the time) and when Bautista's not playing RF. 


Edwin started the season with a drought and has warmed up, as has Adam Lind. Rasmus, who, when he makes contact with the ball, REALLY makes contact and is batting like a DH with tons of strike outs. The problem is that Jose Bautista and JP Arencibia have the same hitting style, meaning a low OBP and the inability to string together hits to score plenty of runs.

And when the rest of the team isn't hitting around you, the home runs are not meaningful. Brett Lawrie (who inexplicitly bat 6th when just getting back into MLB action) will get better.

But there are other players on the team who are underperforming. Melky's start has been bad as well with a complete outage of power for the #2 spot in the lineup.
With Reyes and Bautista out of the line up for a time, there was certainly weakness in the line up that left Cabrera unprotected, meaning that they could really focus on him, because the threats around him were fairly weak.
Emilio Bonifacio needs to step up his game: a .232 OBP is unacceptable for a player who has above .300 in OBP for the last five seasons. His fielding has been atricious, especially at 2B. The same message goes to Maicer, with his .200 OBP so far. His career OBP has been above .320 for each of the last six seasons. Something is wrong here. Rajai's been good, and he deserves every day action because he's just as fast as Bonifacio, gets on base more, and is not a defensive liability. The problem with Rajai of course is that he's weak against RHP.

Blame the Coaching Staff?

So who do you blame? It's easy to say it's the coaching staff and in particular the change out of Mottola for Murphy. Maybe so. Sportsnet staff are quick to point out how a coach has been helping out a player. If that is the case, then why is the team suffering as a whole?

Certainly you can blame managerial staff for poor decisions. That includes putting the wrong people in the lineup, making poor choices for pitching changes, and being too aggressive or not aggressive enough on the baselines. For example, Brett Lawrie is finally hitting #8 in the lineup today. Why would you throw him in the six spot when he has NO MLB experience this year in hitting? 

But players who are performing well just need maintenance when it comes to coaching, and if you're a good player, you will continue to be good. If you're performing poorly, you're going to need help from the coaching staff, and we'll see what comes of it. Can you blame the coaching staff? I don't know.

Things to change

Don't think about changing the starting rotation or the bullpen. They are fine. Of course the starting line up needs to be tweaked to reflect individual performances.

Something needs to change on this team. Both Maicer and Emilio HAVE to get better. We know Brett Lawrie WILL get better.

There are too many people on the team GEARED to swing for the fences. And of course, the lead off spot is dead because Jose Reyes is out until probably the end of June at the earliest. Kawasaki is not going to always have a .375 OBP -- he is far outperforming his position and will have to come down to earth. That means that one of Rajai or Emilio will have to step up and we know that Rajai will not be the one against RHP.

Perhaps now is the time to pull the plug on Colby, trade him with Bonifacio, and get a strong 2B in return. Bring in Anthony Gose, who is more of a contact hitter and can run. And get prepared to replace Kawasaki at SS as well as he is just due to slide.

The 2013 Season - first thoughts

Prediction: It will be the best of times, it was the worst of times.

I know, it's early. The Jays have opened up the much anticipated 2013 season with a disappointing 1-3 start, an anemic offence for a couple of games, some brilliant defence and equally brilliant blunders. And the starting pitching have had moments of brilliance but have not impressed.

The fans of course expect 162-0, or at least cleaning the clocks of the Indians with its fantastic starting rotation and outstanding offence. And to lose against John Farrell and the Boston Red Sox feels awful, but shouldn't be unexpected given that the opponent knows your weaknesses.

So, here's my thoughts thus far and some trends that you should expect to continue to see as a team.

The starting pitching will improve: guaranteed.

RA Dickey kuckles under (Fred Thornhill / CP)

Johnson, Buehrle and Dickey have a long history of good pitching and you can't expect that trend to end. Dickey's start was not helped by Arencibia with his three passed ball and a wild pitch that Arencibia should have blocked. Johnson's start was not helped by Bonifacio's terrible defence, and Buehrle just got rocked by a team who had the scouting book on him. I know it's excuses, but these pitchers have a history of being better than they were this week. It's one start, folks. Lots more to come, and look for brilliant outings from the three newcomers. And expect Morrow to continue to shine. You gotta love R.A. Dickey and his absolute passion for the game.

The defence will continue to suck for a while but will not be good.

Emilio Bonifacio: Not Kelly Johnson (Getty Images)

Defensively, Reyes is not close to Escobar. Defensively, Bonifacio is not close to Johnson or Hill. Defensively, Izturis or DeRosa is not close to Lawrie. Look for lots more errors and lots of more balls going through the infield as the fielders get used to the turf (which moves much faster than grass). Perhaps Bonifacio will get better with regular play. And it will get better when Lawrie comes back and Izturis and Bonifacio platoon at 2B. And Arencibia will probably not catch a Dickey knuckleball for a while. And everyone will get used to the turf.

The offence will improve, really it will.

It's early. Obviously, Lind has hit the ball hard but with no results. But the long ball trend will continue. The team is still forming and gelling together. They're gettting used to Rogers Centre. They were just outpitched by a couple of Cleveland pitchers who were really on their game. That will happen from time to time. The great news is the top of the line up (save Cabrera) is there and Bautista, Arencibia, and Edwin are still hitting true to form. Bonifacio and Davis can still run. And man oh man, if you haven't got some kind of crush (or mancrush) on Jose Reyes, you gotta be crazy. He's just infectuous.

The Bullpen just ain't that great, but will sort itself out

Sergio Santos hasn't pitched in a year. Jeffress shouldn't be on the roster. Esmail Rogers is just okay. The good news is that Delabar, Oliver, Loup, and Janssen are solid.

It had been hoped that the bullpen would not be really taxed upon early in the season and the starters so far have each pitched six innings each.

There is additional depth in AAA for depth.


Injuries will continue to daunt the team

With the injury to Lawrie and now Bautista, we have to remember that the depth of the team will be affected by injury. My prediction is that the injury bug that plagued the starting lineup mid year will continue this year, and that will result in frustration. Lawrie's passion for the game will result in lingering injuries. I also think that Reyes, Cabrera, Rasmus and Arencibia will continue with the injury bug.

Fans will be disappointed

It's a long season, folks. The Jays did not spend $200 million to have a New York Yankees team. They spent $120 million to buy a better than average team. Anthopoulos and Rogers spent way more than expected in the offseason to get some genuine talent in three fantastic new starters, a great starting shortstop, and somewhat of a risk with plenty of upside in Cabrera. What does that $40 million get you? Well it gets you about a run of ERA, and it beefs up 2 positions in that they will get on base 17% more... a definite improvement but not anything that guarantees a World Series.

Consider that the Jays traded for all that talent from Miami, who just did awfully last year with Jose Reyes, Johnson, and Buehrle in the lineup.

This team is not a 100 win team. At best, it's a 96 win team and only if everything goes well. I expect only 90 wins and the team will miss the playoffs.

Of course, I hope for more. And despite all of this analysis, it's still very very early in a season where truly, anything can happen.